Search results for "Credit rating"
showing 10 items of 15 documents
An Application of Hybrid Models in Credit Scoring
2000
The predictive capability of parametric and non-parametric models in solving problems related to financial classification has been widely proved in empirical research carried out in the financial field, particulary in problems like bond rating, bankruptcy prediction and credit scoring. However, recently, it has been shown that a combination of different models generally reduces the prediction error, so that the best alternative to consider may not be a specific model but a combination of them. In this paper, we study hybrid systems based on the aggregation of individual (parametric and nonparametric) models. Our hybrids are built by using both parametric and non parametric models as the sys…
How credit ratings affect sovereign credit risk: cross-border evidence in Latin American emerging markets
2017
This article builds upon previous literature by providing a better understanding of how contagion changes in bordering sovereign CDS emerging markets resulting from credit rating events. To that end, we follow the novel GVAR methodology using data from six Latin American emerging countries during an extensive sample period from 2004 to 2014. Our findings show evidence for the existence of significant and asymmetric cross-border effects. In particular, a competition effect is observed before the event occurs, indicating that non-event countries suffer (benefit) from upgrades (downgrades) in Brazil, Mexico and Chile (in Argentina and Brazil). In contrast, an imitation effect is observed after…
Do sovereign ratings cause instability in cross-border emerging CDS markets?
2020
We analyse the cross-border transmission effect of credit ratings on sovereign CDSs covering a broad sample of emerging countries during the period 2004 to 2015. This study differentiates between the spillover and competition effects between and within geographical areas of emerging countries. We find substantial evidence of cross-border effects with asymmetric responses to upgrades and downgrades. The market reaction differs across regions, reflecting how the international and local impact of rating events are due to different types of effects. At the international portfolio level, the competitive effect is dominant over the spillover effect. Negative events in Asia benefit Africa (which i…
The Effect of Credit Rating Events on the Emerging CDS Market
2017
We document the cross-border spillover impact of S&P sovereign credit rating events on sovereign CDS using an extensive sample of emerging economies. First, we find on average a competition (imitation) effect of downgrades (upgrades) among emerging portfolios. Results confirms that non-event portfolios responds positively to credit deteriorations in terms of an improvement in sovereign credit risk. Second, the sovereign credit risk of non-event countries within the same portfolio benefit (suffer) from downgrades (upgrades). As expected, this implies a competition effect in terms of sovereign credit risk. Moreover, we find that downgrades are more likely to spill over into other emerging mar…
Probabilistic European Country Risk Score Forecasting Using a Diffusion Model
2013
Over the last few years, global crisis has shaken confidence in most European economies. As a consequence, a lack of confidence has spread amongst European countries leading to Europe’s financial instability. Therefore, forecasting the next future of economic situation involves high levels of uncertainty. In this respect, it would be interesting to use tools which allow to predict the trends and evolution of each country’s confidence rating. The Country Risk Score (CRS) represents a good indicator to measure the current situation of a country regarding measures of economic, political and financial Risk in order to determine country Risk ratings. CRS is underscored by Euromoney Agency and is…
Do microfinance rating assessments make sense? An analysis of the drivers of the MFI ratings
2011
Rating assessments of microfinance institutions are claimed to measure a combination of creditworthiness, trustworthiness and excellence in microfinance. Using a global dataset covering reports from 324 microfinance institutions, this study suggests that these ratings are mainly driven by size, profitability, and risk. The ratings do not seem to capture the double bottom-line objective of microfinance institutions, as our analyses are unable to prove any statistical relationship between microfinance ratings and the social objectives of these institutions. Moreover, the association between operational efficiency and microfinance ratings appears weak. Although there are some minor differences…
The Market Price of Credit Risk and Economic States
2015
This paper proposes a market-wide credit risk factor for the US stock market and investigates its properties that are dependent on economic conditions. The market price of credit risk is found to be statistically significantly negative, supporting earlier studies. However, a sample-split analysis reveals that this negative pay-off is non-existent in a later subsample, indicating that the credit risk puzzle is based on temporary mispricing related to the earlier subsample. Further investigation shows that mispricing in the earlier period was mainly driven by positive pay-offs of low credit risk firms, while high credit risk firms did not generate significant returns in any of the sub-periods.
Sovereign Credit Ratings and Financial Markets Linkages: Application to European Data
2012
We use EU sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads daily data to carry out an event study analysis on the reaction of government yield spreads before and after announcements from rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch). Our results show significant responses of government bond yield spreads to changes in rating notations and outlook, particularly in the case of negative announcements. Announcements are not anticipated at 1–2 months horizon but there is bi-directional causality between ratings and spreads within 1–2 weeks; spillover effects especially among EMU countries and from lower rated countries to higher rated countries; and persistence effects for recently downgraded countrie…
Supply chain finance: The role of credit rating and retailer effort on optimal contracts
2021
Abstract Supply chain finance aims at finding the best financing arrangements within a given buyer-supplier dyad. The source of capital can be internal (buyer or supplier) or external (financial institution) to the supply chain. So far, many studies have investigated the optimal mix of the sources of capital; our study aims at contributing to the recent literature that explores the interface of operations and finance extending the supplier-based financing models. As the Covid-19 pandemic hits economic activity, the financial constraints have ever greater importance; knock-on effects of the Covid-19 crisis urges on the critical role of a supply chain that should provide financial resources, …
New Approaches to Regulating the Activities of Rating Agencies: A Comparative Analysis
2016
Abstract Rating agencies have become an important part of the global financial landscape. Formation of credit ratings is specified by the inherent asymmetry of financial market information and general interest in the transformation of a large amount of diverse and segmented financial information in a simple and clear assessment of the credit surveillance of borrowers that is credit rating. The world financial crisis started in 2008 has again put on the agenda the question of rating assessment accuracy and the factors influencing the rating migration. The activity of rating agencies, until recently, has had little regulation, allowing rating agencies to avoid responsibility for inaccuracies …